Speaking on Tuesday, October 8, CNN senior data guru and reporter Harry Enten spoke about how the 2024 presidential election could play out, and how it could be that current polling shows former President Donald Trump could win and Vice President Kamala Harris could lose “in a blowout” of an election.
Particularly, Enten discussed the current polling number, particularly in swing states. He noted that while the current numbers show that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck in neck and the race is “too close to call.” However, Enten then noted that the polls in recent elections have been way off, and if they are wrong in the same way then Trump will win by a landslide.
Such is what Enten explained to CNN anchor John Berman. Beginning, he explained what the current polls are saying, telling Berman, “If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.”
He then noted what would happen if the polls are off like they were during the last presidential election, saying, “But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020. What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.”
Continuing, he noted that it would be even more of a blowout for Harris if the polling reflects the 2022 polling failures, saying, “What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022? Well, in that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because she retakes those Great Lake battleground states, carries North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.”
Enten then, wrapping up, noted that the polls aren’t clear enough to show who is winning, saying, “So the bottom line here is, yes, we have those state polling averages. But the real thing they tell us is that this race is too close to call. We’re probably not going to know who’s going to win for another month and perhaps another month and change.” Watch Enten here:
video
NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said in September that Trump’s ability to outdo polling number suggests he can do better than current polling shows, saying “Take a look here at the last two elections, 2020, 2016, the polling at this point coming out of Labor Day, beginning the fall rush.”
Continuing, Kornacki said, “In 2016, Hillary Clinton led on average by five points. Of course, Donald Trump won in 2016. And Joe Biden had an even bigger lead on average, Labor Day 2020. Donald Trump didn’t win that election, but certainly in the electoral college, he came this close to doing so, Ana. So Trump has run from behind before, certainly.”
